Who lives longer? New research uncovers key predictors of longevity
Three studies at Tampere University confirmed several well-established factors associated with a longer or shorter life. The findings suggest that longevity is not confined to a single pathway but can be achieved through various conditions by diverse groups of people with different characteristics.
Lily Nosraty, visiting researcher at Tampere University and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Helsinki, explains:
“Our studies confirmed key predictors of lifespan, such as self-rated health, educational levels, functional ability, life satisfaction, and smoking. Our findings also suggest that longevity arises from diverse conditions across different groups. Interestingly, we also found unexpected associations, such as musculoskeletal disorders, which require further investigation.”
The studies provide two key messages. First, robust associations with factors like education, smoking, and functional status confirm that tackling inequalities and promoting healthy behaviours are likely to increase longevity at the population level. Second, predicting exactly how long an individual will live, or who will live longer than their peers, remains difficult. Despite identifying strong predictors, much of longevity is still unexplained. The researchers were only able to account for some 15% of lifespan variability, indicating that random processes and unknown influences play a significant role.
“Our research confirms that promoting education, reducing smoking, and maintaining good functional health are crucial for increasing the lifespan at the population level,” says Nosraty.
“However, predicting exactly who will live longer remains a challenge. While common predictors offer actionable targets for public health interventions, the variability in individual outcomes points to the need for personalised approaches to ageing,” Nosraty emphasises.
The findings are based on data from the Tampere Longitudinal Study on Aging (TamELSA) and the Finnish Longitudinal Study on Aging Municipal Employees (FLAME), with about three decades of follow-up periods.
For more information, please contact:
Lily Nosraty
lily.Nosraty [at] tuni.fi (lily[dot]nosraty[at]tuni[dot]fi)
lily.nosraty [at] helsinki.fi (lily[dot]nosraty[at]helsinki[dot]fi)
Tel. +358 44 080 8072
Please visit the following articles
Nosraty, L., Turunen, E., Kyrönlahti, S., CH Nygård, P KC, S Neupane. Application of GUHA data mining method in cohort data to explore paths associated with premature death: a 29-year follow-up study. BMC Med Res Methodol 25, 20 (2025).
Nosraty, L., Nevalainen, J., Raitanen, J., Enroth L. Tree-based analysis of longevity predictors and their ten-year changes: a 35-Year mortality follow-up. BMC Geriatr 24, 817 (2024).
Nosraty L, Deeg D, Raitanen J, Jylhä M. Who live longer than their age peers: individual predictors of longevity among older individuals. Aging Clin Exp Res. 2023 Mar;35(3):677-688.
